First Hurricane Forecast for 2017

Posted April 10, 2017

CSU's Dr Philip Klotzbach projected 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes at Category 3 or above between the 1 June official start of the season and November 2017.

Colorado State University expects four of the 11 named storms will become hurricanes, with two likely to reach major hurricane status. Preparedness is paramount because it only takes one storm or hurricane to make landfall and cause significant damage. By comparison, 2016's hurricane activity was about 135 percent of the average season. Traditionally, these weak and/or moderate El Niños are associated with more hostile conditions for development of tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean.

But pockets of waters that Klotzbach follows closely had cooled over the past month, and Arctic waters remained cool enough to continue suggesting the Atlantic basin has moved into a less-active hurricane period.

Those numbers are down from the 30 season average taken between 1981 and 2010 of 12 named storms and 6.5 hurricanes each season. They anticipate that there's a 42 percent chance of a Category 3, 4, or 5 storm will hit somewhere along the entire USA coastline in 2017.

So far, the 2017 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, and 2002.

Stay with WTOC, your Hurricane authority, throughout the upcoming hurricane season.

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If the weather experts are correct, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season may be slightly below average in regard to activity. El Nino events typically correspond to fewer storms in the Atlantic and more in the eastern Pacific.

This risk of a major hurricane striking in the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, including Louisiana this year is 24%.the long-term average is 31%.

This is the team's 34th forecast.

Last season spawned 15 named storms, seven of which developed into hurricanes. Four people died in SC, and a fifth during the clean up.

The university, under the direction of meteorologist William Gray, was the first group to predict seasonal hurricane activity in the mid-1980s.